Brent crude rose to $106.60 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 1.8% to $95.79, a two-week high, after the Houthis struck a Saudi Aramco office in Dhahran and renewed attacks on Riyadh’s King Khalid Airport, while UK Maritime Trade Operations reported strikes on a container ship and an oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran reportedly began using new tactics to target ships, aiming to keep prices high and influence US midterm elections. But oil exports from the Gulf have actually held up, according to UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
The real driver is a freight-and-fear premium, splitting energy exposure sharply: direct-crude positions capture the spike, while refiners and shippers quietly absorb the risk. A potential Russian-Ukrainian energy ceasefire adds another layer, since it could ease the diesel crunch but may not significantly improve the global gasoil market balance. The market is pricing a blockade it hasn’t actually gotten, as the barrels are still moving.
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Every Coffee Giant
Skipped The Farm.
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Dunkin' was acquired for $11B. JDE Peet's IPO'd at $17B. Starbucks today carries a $110B market cap.
None of them grew a single bean. They bought it, marked it up, and let someone else carry the risk in the field.
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$11B
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Dunkin', acquired. Bought beans from others.
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$17B
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JDE Peet's, IPO.
Bought beans from others.
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$110B
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Starbucks, market cap.
Bought beans from others.
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?
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Green Coffee Company.
Owns the farm. Still private.
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Historical comparisons, not forecasts.
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Then There's The One That Owns The Whole Chain.
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Green Coffee Company is Colombia's #1 coffee producer, and the only one in the country that's vertically integrated at scale: seed to sale across 10,000+ acres.
They grow it. They mill it. They maintain control through contract roasting. They ship it. The margin that three giants handed to middlemen stays inside one company.
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One company · 10,000+ acres · Nothing outsourced
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26X
Revenue growth
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Four years. One producer. Sales pipeline now above $100M.
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And that was before they landed exclusive North American rights to Juan Valdez®, Colombia's most iconic coffee brand, now moving onto 3,000+ shelves at Walgreens and Target.
$120M+ has already been raised from 2,000+ investors.
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Juan Valdez is a licensed brand. The Juan Valdez parties are not sponsors of this offering.
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They Built The Whole Chain. You Can Own A Piece Of It.
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Dunkin' didn't send a notice before the $11B deal. JDE Peet's didn't email you before the IPO.
Green Coffee Company is still private, shares are available at $1.15, and qualifying investments get up to 20% bonus shares*.
The company remains private while it builds out its retail footprint across North America.
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$1.15
Share Price Today
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$1,001*
Minimum investment
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No accreditation required. Up to 20% bonus shares* on qualifying investments. The company remains private.
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This is a paid advertisement for Green Coffee Company's Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular at
https://invest.greencoffeecompany.com/.
Timelines are subject to change. Listing on the NASDAQ is contingent upon necessary approvals, and reserving a ticker symbol does not guarantee a company's public listing.
*Bonus shares are subject to qualifying investment amounts and the offer's terms and conditions.
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| | Sponsored |
The War Premium Is Real But the Barrels Aren’t Gone
The oil market is pricing a crisis that hasn’t fully materialized. Brent crude is above $106, and WTI just hit a two-week high near $95.79, yet exports from the Gulf haven’t collapsed. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that shipments have held up so far despite the strikes, suggesting the price surge is a risk premium, not a supply shock.
Houthi missile attacks on Saudi Aramco’s Dhahran office and renewed strikes on Riyadh’s King Khalid Airport have kept the region on edge. Vessels near the Strait of Hormuz have been hit as well, raising concerns about shipping routes.
But the real pressure is on freight and rerouting costs, not missing barrels.
Why Freight Is Doing the Work
The surge in oil prices is increasingly about shipping risk rather than missing crude.
Instead, the premium is driven by the cost of rerouting shipments and the fear of further attacks near the strait. Iran’s admission of new offensive tactics has undermined efforts to control prices, making the market react more to risk than supply loss. The situation is compounded by the fact that a tanker was struck near the Omani anchorage of Sohar, outside the strait, suggesting bypass routes may no longer be safe.
This adds to the freight costs and the fear premium, pushing prices higher.
How the Exposure Splits
The split is clear: direct-crude exposure captures the spot spike in WTI and Brent, but it carries roll/contango risk. Oil producer equities give equity-levered exposure, while midstream income holdings offer defensive carry.
The risk is that a sudden de-escalation or US intervention could reverse the premium fast. The market is pricing a blockade it hasn’t actually gotten, which makes this a test of how much a pure fear-and-freight premium can hold.
The Russian Diesel Wildcard
A potential Russian-Ukrainian energy ceasefire complicates the picture further.
Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire, but the Russian government has not confirmed it, and Zelenskyy says strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure continue. The US temporarily eased sanctions on Russian fuel, reversing a measure aimed at cutting Moscow’s income from its war against Ukraine. However, the International Energy Agency warned that easing Russian diesel export restrictions may not significantly improve the global gasoil market balance.
This creates a wildcard scenario where the diesel crunch may not be eased as much as hoped, keeping pressure on the market.
Hedge or Trap for Energy Exposure
The gap between a realized supply shock and a risk-premium rally determines whether energy exposure is a hedge or a trap. If exports hold and Russian diesel flows, upside is capped.
If Hormuz traffic deteriorates further, direct-crude trackers outrun producers. Logistics/retail holdings face margin pressure from a diesel crunch, making spotting overlooked players exposed to or insulated from fuel costs essential. The risk is that contango erosion on direct-crude trackers could occur if the curve inverts, and any de-escalation headline could reverse the premium fast.
The barrels are still moving, which makes this a test of how much a pure fear-and-freight premium can hold before either diplomacy or the diesel wildcard breaks it. |
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