Goldman says $120 oil if Hormuz attacks intensify. They raised the odds of $100 oil by 19% in a month.

Brent just cracked $100 — but the real trade is the record diesel spike and the Goldman/HSBC forecasts. Brent touched $100.03 for the first time above $100 in three months (last held in May) after Houthi drones and ballistic missiles struck Saudi Aramco sites in southern Saudi Arabia, wounding 73, sending WTI up ~3% near $95 and Brent up ~2%. But the round number everyone is reacting to isn’t the number that matters — the same Goldman note driving the panic forecasts Brent back at $85 by December, while US retail diesel just hit a record over $5.90/gallon and European diesel approaches $200/bbl.

That’s the story crude is hiding: the spike may be a fade, but the physical refined-product tightness is the durable trade — think integrated majors (XOM, CVX) and sharper beta in exploration and services. If Hormuz attacks intensify, Goldman’s $120 scenario is live; if a ceasefire holds, crude mean-reverts while diesel stays tight. The $100 print is a headline; the record diesel print is the trade.

Brent touched $100.03 for the first time

Brent crude oil touched $100.03 for the first time above $100 in three months, last held in May, as Houthi drones and ballistic missiles struck Saudi Aramco facilities in southern Saudi Arabia, injuring 73 people, driving WTI up ~3% toward $95, and prompting a ~2% gain in Brent, with CVX and XOM up ~1%. The move comes as the United States and Iran enter their seventh month of war. Brent has risen by more than 62% this year, according to NBC News.

The headline is Brent above $100, but

Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for Brent crude oil to $85 per barrel in December and $80 in 2027, assuming Gulf output stays below pre-war levels, while HSBC set a base case of $95 per barrel through year-end, $85 for 2027, and $75 for 2028 and beyond, according to Yahoo Finance and BeInCrypto. Goldman also noted that the implied probability of Brent crude oil above $100 in 2027 rose from ~6% a month ago to ~25%, with the bank predicting Brent crude oil could exceed $120 per barrel if Persian Gulf oil flows remain low, according to NBC News and Morningstar.

The US attack sank one of three

The U.S. Navy sank one of three Iranian oil tankers over the weekend, with just four vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday and six the following day, per NBC News. The global benchmark has lost around 2 million barrels a day of Middle Eastern exports and another 2 million barrels a day from Russia due to Ukrainian drone attacks, according to New Fortune Times. US retail diesel prices hit a record high of over $5.90 per gallon, while European diesel prices approached $200 per barrel, according to New Fortune Times.

Leading oil stocks are catching a modest bid

Chevron Corp. and Exxon Mobil Corp. are both up about 1% on the day, according to Baystreet Capital Markets, a modest bid relative to the move in crude itself. July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year, with the energy index up 14.7%, according to Yahoo Finance and BeInCrypto. The equity reaction remains contained even as the physical squeeze in refined products keeps building.

The $100 print is the headline everyone

The $100 print is the headline everyone will quote, but the record diesel print is the trade the data actually supports. Position for the squeeze, not the round number.