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# Goldman says $120 oil if Hormuz attacks intensify. They raised the odds of $100 oil by 19% in a month.
- URL: https://etf-alert.ghost.io/goldman-says-120-oil-if-hormuz-attacks-intensify-they-raised-the-odds-of-100-oil-by-19-in-a-month/
- Published: 2026-09-08T15:00:04.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-08T15:00:04.000Z
- Author: Andrew Martin

| ![Logo](https://storage.ghost.io/c/24/9d/249db85d-ffc7-4113-b57b-0505d666fa1d/content/images/2026/07/logo-1.png) Brent just cracked $100 — but the real trade is the record diesel spike and the Goldman/HSBC forecasts. Brent touched $100.03 for the first time above $100 in three months (last held in May) after Houthi drones and ballistic missiles struck Saudi Aramco sites in southern Saudi Arabia, wounding 73, sending WTI up \~3% near $95 and Brent up \~2%. But the round number everyone is reacting to isn’t the number that matters — the same Goldman note driving the panic forecasts Brent back at $85 by December, while US retail diesel just hit a record over $5.90/gallon and European diesel approaches $200/bbl. Key Points •Brent crude touched $100.03, its first time above $100 in three months, after Houthi drone and missile strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities wounded 73 •Goldman Sachs raised its Brent forecast to $85/barrel by December ($80 in 2027) but flagged $120 as live if Gulf output stays disrupted — odds of Brent above $100 in 2027 jumped from \~6% to \~25% in a month •US retail diesel hit a record high above $5.90/gallon; European diesel is approaching $200/barrel •US Navy sank one of three Iranian oil tankers over the weekend; Hormuz traffic fell to just 4–6 vessels a day •XOM and CVX are up only about 1% on the day — a muted equity reaction relative to the size of the move in crude That’s the story crude is hiding: the spike may be a fade, but the physical refined-product tightness is the durable trade — think integrated majors (XOM, CVX) and sharper beta in exploration and services. If Hormuz attacks intensify, Goldman’s $120 scenario is live; if a ceasefire holds, crude mean-reverts while diesel stays tight. The $100 print is a headline; the record diesel print is the trade. Sponsored **This Tesla Demo Shocks Everyone** "Hi, I'm Jeff Brown...I'm about to get in this Tesla and let it take me a few miles to show you Elon Musk's next Big Project today… What happens next will shock you…" [![video](https://storage.5th-elementagency.com/files/Promo/finance/pbrth/lift-618/img-1.jpg)](https://email.etf-alert.com/6a2142dd4628b3bfe7249941?email=%%{uuid}%%&domain=915ETFG&type=BLOG&product=PBRTH618&ref=etf-alert.ghost.io) [Click here to see what happened.](https://email.etf-alert.com/6a2142dd4628b3bfe7249941?email=%%{uuid}%%&domain=915ETFG&type=BLOG&product=PBRTH618&ref=etf-alert.ghost.io) Sincerely, Jeff Brown Founder, *Brownstone Research* Sponsored Brent touched $100.03 for the first time![Brent touched $100.03 for the first time](https://b2ymoao3sf9zlswzgc.b-cdn.net/6fe1cf55-301f-4348-a875-a7983c2d6bf5.png)Brent crude oil touched $100.03 for the first time above $100 in three months, last held in May, as Houthi drones and ballistic missiles struck Saudi Aramco facilities in southern Saudi Arabia, injuring 73 people, driving WTI up \~3% toward $95, and prompting a \~2% gain in Brent, with CVX and XOM up \~1%. The move comes as the United States and Iran enter their seventh month of war. Brent has risen by more than 62% this year, according to NBC News.The headline is Brent above $100, but![The headline is Brent above $100, but](https://b2ymoao3sf9zlswzgc.b-cdn.net/253db25d-0b49-4357-8a62-4eb267c42d3e.png)Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for Brent crude oil to $85 per barrel in December and $80 in 2027, assuming Gulf output stays below pre-war levels, while HSBC set a base case of $95 per barrel through year-end, $85 for 2027, and $75 for 2028 and beyond, according to Yahoo Finance and BeInCrypto. Goldman also noted that the implied probability of Brent crude oil above $100 in 2027 rose from \~6% a month ago to \~25%, with the bank predicting Brent crude oil could exceed $120 per barrel if Persian Gulf oil flows remain low, according to NBC News and Morningstar.The US attack sank one of threeThe U.S. Navy sank one of three Iranian oil tankers over the weekend, with just four vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday and six the following day, per NBC News. The global benchmark has lost around 2 million barrels a day of Middle Eastern exports and another 2 million barrels a day from Russia due to Ukrainian drone attacks, according to New Fortune Times. US retail diesel prices hit a record high of over $5.90 per gallon, while European diesel prices approached $200 per barrel, according to New Fortune Times.Leading oil stocks are catching a modest bidChevron Corp. and Exxon Mobil Corp. are both up about 1% on the day, according to Baystreet Capital Markets, a modest bid relative to the move in crude itself. July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year, with the energy index up 14.7%, according to Yahoo Finance and BeInCrypto. The equity reaction remains contained even as the physical squeeze in refined products keeps building.The $100 print is the headline everyoneThe $100 print is the headline everyone will quote, but the record diesel print is the trade the data actually supports. Position for the squeeze, not the round number. Stay focused. Stay calm. Sources[baystreet.ca — Crude Oil Prices Near $100 As U.S. And Iran Exchange Fire](https://www.baystreet.ca/commodities/8950/Crude-Oil-Prices-Near-100-As-US-And-Iran-Exchange-Fire?ref=etf-alert.ghost.io)[morningstar.com — North American Morning Briefing: Oil Nears $100, Stock Futures Sink](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202609082272/north-american-morning-briefing-oil-nears-100-stock-futures-sink?ref=etf-alert.ghost.io)[finance.yahoo.com — Brent Crude Oil Moves Above $100 for the First Time in 3 Months](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/brent-crude-oil-moves-above-125157684.html?ref=etf-alert.ghost.io)[nbcnews.com — Oil nears $100 after Saudi Arabia says energy infrastructure was attacked](https://www.nbcnews.com/business/energy/oil-prices-iran-war-saudi-arabia-rcna596558?ref=etf-alert.ghost.io)[newfortunetimes.com — Brent Pushes Toward $100 as Saudi Strikes Add to Hormuz Supply Squeeze](https://www.newfortunetimes.com/brent-pushes-toward-100-as-saudi-strikes-add-to-hormuz-supply-squeeze/?ref=etf-alert.ghost.io) |
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